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Significant drop in cancer diagnoses in Wales during the Covid-19 pandemic

20th May 2022
A new study in the British Journal of Cancer by DATA-CAN and partners has found that there were over a thousand fewer new cases of bowel, breast and lung cancers diagnosed in Wales in 2020, compared to 2019.

There were over a thousand fewer new cases of bowel, breast and lung cancers diagnosed in Wales in 2020, compared to 2019, according to a new study published in the British Journal of Cancer this month. This is equivalent to a 15 per cent reduction in the diagnosis of these common cancers.

Researchers analysed NHS Wales cancer data on diagnoses of bowel, breast and lung cancers to help understand what happened to cancer diagnoses in Wales during the first full year of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.

The team used anonymised, individual-level, population-scale data held in the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) Databank; an accredited, Trusted Research Environment housed within Swansea University Medical School.

Key findings from the study include:

One of the paper’s authors, Professor Mark Lawler, Scientific Director of DATA-CAN, the UK’s Health Data Research Hub for Cancer and Professor of Digital Health at Queen’s University Belfast, explains some of the reasons behind the reductions,

“The reduction in diagnoses of bowel, breast and lung cancers during 2020 were partly due to people not seeking medical advice for symptoms because they were worried about catching COVID and were following the necessary stay at home messages. There were also changes to accessing screening, GP and hospital services during 2020. The monthly pattern of diagnosis numbers and the healthcare route to diagnosis did vary over 2020 coinciding with changes in access to health services and lockdowns.

Mark adds,

“This is the first national population-level study of its kind to quantify in detail the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on cancer diagnosis. It emphasises the power and importance of data intelligence in capturing the impact of the pandemic. Health data analysis, like our study, plays an important role in helping to plan future health services and helps mitigate some of the worst effects of the pandemic on cancer patients and services. Make no mistake – data really can help save lives.”

Although the pandemic, along with public health and healthcare responses to it, has lessened, the study still suggests that alterations to healthcare routes to diagnosis, increases in later-stage diagnoses and an increase in the number of undiagnosed patients with new cancers can occur. This is why it is so important that people seek medical advice if they notice any concerning symptoms (lump on the breast, blood in urine or faeces, difficulty swallowing, unexpected weight loss) and continue to take up the offer of screening appointments when invited.

The study was conducted by the DATA-CAN Cancer Collaboration Cymru research group which is led by Public Health Wales’ Welsh Cancer Intelligence and Surveillance Unit and includes the Population Data Science team at Swansea University and their SAIL Databank, Health Data Research UK Wales-Northern Ireland, DATA-CAN – The UK’s Health Data Research Hub for Cancer, Queens University Belfast and the University of Oxford.

British Journal of Cancer: Impact of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic on female breast, colorectal and non-small cell lung cancer incidence, stage and healthcare pathway to diagnosis during 2020 in Wales, UK, using a national cancer clinical record system